Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves
(-110/-110)-120
On September 6, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Seattle Mariners at Truist Park for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are looking to build momentum after the Braves secured a 4-1 victory in their previous matchup, which marked a much-needed win for a team currently struggling with a record of 64-77. Meanwhile, the Mariners, with a record of 73-68, have been performing above average this season.
The Braves are projected to start Hurston Waldrep, who boasts an impressive 1.01 ERA this year, although his 3.55 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck. Waldrep’s recent performance has been solid, going 6 innings with 1 earned run and 9 strikeouts in his last start. However, he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings on average today, which raises concerns about his stamina. The Braves’ offense ranks 15th overall in MLB, but they have shown the ability to draw walks, which could be advantageous against Mariners’ starter Bryce Miller, who struggles with control and has a high walk rate of 9.6%.
Bryce Miller, on the other hand, has a 5.71 ERA and is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs today. While he performed decently in his last outing, allowing 2 earned runs over 6 innings, his overall numbers indicate he is a below-average pitcher. With the Mariners’ offense ranking 12th in MLB, their power numbers stand out, particularly their 3rd best ranking in home runs.
With the Braves’ implied team total set at 4.61 runs and the Mariners at 4.39, this matchup could be closer than the records suggest, especially if Waldrep can continue his strong performance while Miller struggles.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bryce Miller is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate today.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Cal Raleigh has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Seattle Mariners bats collectively have been one of the best in the majors this year (7th-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hurston Waldrep must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 82.3% of the time, grading out in the 99th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Harris II’s true offensive ability to be a .325, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 deviation between that mark and his actual .287 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 131 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)