See the Guardians vs Royals Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Sunday March 30th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their matchup on March 30, 2025, both teams enter with identical records of 1-1 this season. The Royals recently edged the Guardians in a close contest, winning 4-3 on March 29, which adds a competitive edge to this third game in the series.

The Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound, who is ranked as the 101st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While he’s projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, his ability to limit earned runs is impressive, allowing just 1.9 earned runs on average. However, concerns loom over his projections for hits and walks, which rank as terrible at 4.2 and 1.7, respectively.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee, who is in better form, coming in at 44th in Power Rankings. Bibee is projected to allow 2.1 earned runs and has also shown the ability to go deep into games, averaging 5.2 innings. However, he too struggles with hits and walks, posting similarly poor projections.

Offensively, the Royals rank 14th overall in MLB with a solid batting average of .284, though their power numbers are lacking, sitting at 20th in home runs. The Guardians, while also struggling offensively—ranking 17th overall and 21st in batting average—have a potent stolen base game, ranking 6th.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets indicate a tight contest, reflected in both teams’ moneyline of -110. The Royals could find an edge with Wacha’s ability to limit runs, juxtaposed with the Guardians’ offensive struggles. This matchup promises to be a closely fought battle as both teams aim to take the series lead.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  In his previous start, Tanner Bibee was on point and compiled 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  As it relates to his home runs, Steven Kwan has been lucky since the start of last season. His 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 5.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Michael Wacha has averaged 17.2 outs per GS since the start of last season, placing in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bobby Witt Jr.’s 14.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.6% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 77 away games (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Michael Massey has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.75 Units / 57% ROI)