San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)+100
As the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants gear up for their matchup on July 3, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on this critical game in the series. The Giants managed to edge out the Diamondbacks in their previous encounter, adding pressure on Arizona as they try to reclaim momentum. Currently, the Diamondbacks sit at .500 with a record of 43-43, while the Giants are slightly better at 46-41, showcasing an above-average season.
The Diamondbacks will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound, who despite his 8-5 record in 17 starts, ranks as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he has struggled at times this season. Pfaadt has an ERA of 5.38, but his xFIP of 4.05 suggests he may have been unlucky, potentially hinting at better performances ahead. However, he faces a Giants offense that has been lackluster this year, ranking 24th overall.
On the other hand, Robbie Ray will take the hill for the Giants, bringing an impressive 2.75 ERA and a solid 8-3 record. Ray ranks 76th among pitchers, which is above average, but his high walk rate of 9.5% could become problematic against a Diamondbacks lineup that is 4th in MLB in drawing walks.
The Diamondbacks’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 2nd in MLB and boasting the 3rd most home runs. This power could be critical against Ray, who tends to allow fly balls. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, sportsbooks are anticipating a competitive matchup, and the current moneyline for both teams is set at -110, indicating a close contest. Given the projections, Arizona may have a slight edge in this game, especially if their potent offense can exploit Ray’s control issues.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Rafael Devers has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 102.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Brandon Pfaadt’s slider percentage has dropped by 5.7% from last year to this one (27.3% to 21.6%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robbie Ray.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- James McCann – Over/Under Total BasesIn today’s game, James McCann is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 63 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+13.50 Units / 135% ROI)