See the Dodgers vs D-Backs Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Saturday May 10th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 10, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the National League West. The Diamondbacks, currently sitting at 20-19, are having an average season but boast the 4th best offense in MLB, despite their recent struggles. Conversely, the Dodgers are in a strong position at 26-13, showcasing their solid performance with the 2nd best offense in the league.

In their last matchup, the Diamondbacks fell short, losing 14-11 to the Dodgers. This marked the second consecutive loss for Arizona, while Los Angeles celebrated a well-earned victory. The Diamondbacks will likely rely on Corbin Burnes, who has a respectable 3.58 ERA this season, but the projections indicate he might be due for a downturn, especially with a higher xFIP of 4.39. Burnes has been inconsistent, projecting an average of 5.0 innings pitched with concerning stats for runs, hits, and walks allowed today.

Dustin May will take the mound for the Dodgers, and while his 4.36 ERA is average, he comes off a solid performance where he allowed four earned runs across six innings in his last start. May’s high ground-ball rate at 54% could play a pivotal role against a Diamondbacks offense that excels in home runs but struggles with strikeouts against ground-ball pitchers.

Given the projections and the offensive capabilities of both teams, the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -120, indicating a close contest. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. With both teams coming off a wild recent game, fans can expect a thrilling matchup at Chase Field.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Because flyball pitchers have a substantial advantage over flyball bats, Dustin May and his 47.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today’s outing facing 2 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.8-mph to 103.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  Corbin Burnes has used his cutter 9.9% more often this year (54.9%) than he did last season (45%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dustin May.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 63% ROI)