Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+165
The Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Colorado Rockies on June 21, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks are currently positioned in the middle of the pack with a record of 38-37, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 17-59. Arizona’s offense has been on fire, ranking 2nd in MLB, while Colorado’s ranks a dismal 26th.
In their last game on June 20, the Rockies lost to the Diamondbacks by a score of 14-8, continuing their rough season. The Rockies will send Carson Palmquist to the mound, who has had a tough time this year, with an ERA of 7.76 and a 0-4 record. His recent outings suggest he may struggle again, as he projects to allow 3.8 earned runs today. In contrast, Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks has been solid, boasting a 3.41 ERA and a 6-3 record. Kelly’s ability to limit walks (6.3 BB%) could exploit the Rockies’ low-walk offense, which ranks 3rd least in MLB.
Despite the Rockies’ struggles, they do have some hope with their best hitter performing well. Over the last week, he has recorded a .333 batting average and a 1.313 OPS, indicating he could be a factor in this matchup. However, the projections favor the Diamondbacks, who have a high implied team total of 7.20 runs, compared to the Rockies’ 5.30. With the Diamondbacks’ potent offense and Kelly on the mound, they appear well-positioned to secure another victory against the struggling Rockies.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-195)Among every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Pavin Smith is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to record the most runs (7.14 on average) on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)Carson Palmquist is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Orlando Arcia is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 57 games (+14.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)