See the Cubs vs Blue Jays Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Thursday August 14th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Toronto Blue Jays

On August 14, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago Cubs in a compelling interleague matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, standing at 70-51, are enjoying a strong season, although they stumbled in their last game, losing 4-1 to the Cubs. Chicago, with a record of 68-51, is also having a commendable year, including their recent victory against Toronto. This game marks the third in their series, setting the stage for an intense showdown.

Toronto is projected to send Max Scherzer to the mound, who has had a rather inconsistent season with a 2-2 record and a 4.21 ERA. However, his peripherals suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xERA is a more favorable 3.62. Scherzer’s high flyball rate of 53% could be a concern against the Cubs’ power-laden lineup, which ranks 6th in MLB with 169 home runs this season.

On the other side, Chicago will counter with Matthew Boyd, who has been exceptional this season, boasting an 11-5 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA. Boyd’s projections suggest he will perform well, although he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 3.81.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 1st in MLB in batting average and 3rd overall, while the Cubs are positioned well at 6th. Toronto’s offensive strength should not be overlooked, especially with their best hitter recently posting a .368 batting average over the last week.

Despite the recent split in their series, the Blue Jays hold the statistical edge in several categories, particularly at the plate. Given the projections and strengths of both teams, bettors might find value in considering the Blue Jays as they look to rebound in this crucial matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Recording 17.7 outs per GS this year on average, Matthew Boyd places him the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-115)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Max Scherzer in the 92nd percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Ernie Clement is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 116 games (+13.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)