Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
(+100/-120)+135
The Los Angeles Angels and the Houston Astros face off for the second game of their series on September 27, 2025, after the Angels edged out the Astros 4-3 in their last matchup. Currently, the Angels sit at 72-88, having struggled throughout the season. Their chances of playoff contention are slim, while the Astros, boasting an 85-75 record, are well-positioned for a playoff spot.
On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Caden Dana, who has endured a rough year with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 and a troubling ERA of 6.39. Despite his low ranking as the 289th best starting pitcher in MLB, Dana showed signs of improvement in his last start, pitching 6 innings with just 2 earned runs. However, his habit of allowing walks (14.8 BB%) might play into the hands of the Astros’ low-walk offense, ranking 5th least in MLB.
Conversely, A.J. Blubaugh will take the hill for the Astros, bringing a solid 1.93 ERA into this game. Despite being one of the lower-ranked pitchers himself, his performance has been effective, as demonstrated in his last outing where he threw 3 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts. However, the projections suggest that he might regress due to a higher xFIP of 3.73.
Offensively, the Angels have a powerful lineup, ranking 4th in MLB with 225 home runs this season, which could exploit Blubaugh’s tendency to allow fly balls (50 FB%). In contrast, the Astros rank 15th overall in offense, with a middle-of-the-pack performance that could challenge Dana if he falters.
As the Angels play at home, they are underdogs with a moneyline of +140, which may present an enticing opportunity for bettors looking for value in this matchup. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, this contest promises to be a thrilling encounter as both teams look to solidify their positions as the season draws to a close.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineIn his previous game started, A.J. Blubaugh was on point and gave up 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under Total BasesBased on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.1) implies that Jesus Sanchez has suffered from bad luck this year with his 16.0 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Houston Astros – 2H MoneylineThe Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Caden Dana – Over/Under Pitching OutsTallying 12.7 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Caden Dana ranks in the 18th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under Total BasesIn the past week, Mike Trout’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.6% up to 57.1%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Bryce Teodosio – Over/Under Total BasesThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Teodosio in the 3rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under Team TotalThe Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under Team TotalThe Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 147 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)