Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-220
On April 29, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Mariners are currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 16-12, while the Angels are struggling at 12-15. The Mariners recently clinched a thrilling victory against the Angels, winning 7-6 in their last matchup on April 27, and look to build momentum against a team that has lost its last game 5-0.
Seattle’s Bryce Miller is projected to take the mound, hoping to improve his 1-3 record this season. Despite his struggles, Miller ranks as the 77th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, and his peripherals suggest he’s been unlucky this season. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well against an Angels offense that ranks 27th overall.
On the other side, Los Angeles will counter with Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled this season, sitting among the worst pitchers in the league. He also has a 1-3 record with a 5.47 ERA. While Kochanowicz projects to pitch 5.2 innings, he is expected to give up 2.7 earned runs and allow 5.3 hits, which could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that ranks 4th in overall offensive performance.
The Mariners are favored heavily, with a moneyline of -200, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities and an Angels team that has struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities. With the Mariners projected to score 4.35 runs, they seem well-positioned to take the series opener.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Jack Kochanowicz has utilized his sinker 22.1% less often this year (50.3%) than he did last season (72.4%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Nolan Schanuel is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jorge Soler, Kyren Paris, Jo Adell, Logan O’Hoppe, Mike Trout).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-220)Out of all the teams today, the 4th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The 11.6% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #2 group of hitters in the game this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+14.55 Units / 58% ROI)