See Picks and Betting Line for D-Backs vs Astros – Saturday, September 7, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Houston Astros

On September 7, 2024, the Houston Astros host the Arizona Diamondbacks in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams vying for postseason positioning. In this interleague clash, the Astros sit at 76-65, currently holding their ground as they fight for a playoff spot. The Diamondbacks, slightly ahead at 79-63, are looking to extend their successful campaign. Notably, the Astros lost a closely contested game against the Diamondbacks yesterday, which adds extra weight to today’s rematch.

Houston plans to send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, who has had an inconsistent season with a 7-9 record and a 4.24 ERA. However, Kikuchi’s 3.25 xFIP suggests that he has been a bit unlucky and may be due for a turnaround. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings today, allowing roughly 2.5 earned runs, which could be enough for the Astros to support with their potent offense.

The Astros rank 11th in MLB offensively and boast a stellar 2nd ranking in team batting average. Yordan Alvarez has been a key contributor over the past week, with 6 hits and 8 RBIs in his last 7 games, including 4 home runs. This performance could help elevate Houston’s chances against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled with a 5.33 ERA and only 5 games started this year. While Rodriguez has shown flashes of potential, his below-average strikeout numbers against a low-strikeout Astros lineup may hinder his effectiveness.

Betting lines currently favor the Astros, with a strong implied team total of 4.46 runs. Given the projections, Houston looks to capitalize on their hitting prowess and Kikuchi’s potential to outperform his stats, making them a solid pick in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+130)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ketel Marte has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Yusei Kikuchi has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Against the weak defense of Arizona’s 3rd-worst infield on the slate), Victor Caratini has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-150)
  The 3rd-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Houston Astros.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 130 games (+15.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 80 games (+26.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+17.90 Units / 46% ROI)