Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)+125
The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners continue their American League West series on July 13, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels are struggling this season, holding a 39-55 record, while the Mariners are performing above average with a 52-44 record. Notably, the Angels eked out a close 6-5 victory over the Mariners yesterday, despite being underdogs with a +120 moneyline.
On the mound, the Angels are set to start Jose Soriano, who has a solid ERA of 3.87 and ranks as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB. Soriano has had a mixed season with a 4-7 Win/Loss record over 13 starts. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs today, which bodes well for the Angels. However, his projections also suggest he will allow 4.6 hits and 2.0 walks, showing some areas of concern.
The Mariners counter with George Kirby, who has been excellent this season with a 3.39 ERA and is ranked 14th among starting pitchers. His Win/Loss record stands at 7-6 over 19 starts. Kirby’s performance metrics are particularly impressive; his 2.87 FIP indicates some bad luck, suggesting he could perform even better going forward. Projections have him pitching 5.8 innings and allowing 2.4 earned runs, which matches up well against the Angels’ struggling offense.
Offensively, the Angels are ranked 23rd overall and have shown some flashes of power, ranking 15th in home runs. However, they struggle with consistency, evidenced by their 20th place in team batting average. Taylor Ward leads the team, having played in 91 games and hit 14 home runs this season.
The Mariners’ hitting has been notably poor, with a 27th overall offensive ranking and a dismal 29th in team batting average. However, they show power potential, ranking 10th in home runs. Julio Rodriguez has been their standout player, hitting .264 with 18 stolen bases over 95 games.
While the Mariners are favorites with a -160 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a 47% chance of winning, suggesting value in betting on the underdogs. With a low Game Total set at 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested matchup, potentially decided by bullpen performances late in the game.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)Recording 17.6 outs per start this year on average, George Kirby places in the 86th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Jose Soriano’s high usage rate of his fastball (57.1% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Mickey Moniak will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Keston Hiura, Jo Adell).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+205/-275)Taylor Ward has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 38% ROI)