Score Updates for Brewers vs Athletics – 8/23/24

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Oakland Athletics

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Oakland Athletics on August 23, 2024, both teams are looking to establish their dominance in this interleague matchup. The Brewers, with a solid record of 73-54, currently sit in the playoff hunt, while the Athletics, at 55-73, have struggled this season. It’s worth noting that the Athletics recently snapped a losing streak with a 3-1 victory against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 22, showcasing a glimmer of potential.

The matchup features left-handed pitcher JP Sears for the Athletics and right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale for the Brewers. Sears has had an up-and-down season, currently holding a 4.15 ERA, yet his advanced metrics indicate he may have benefited from some luck. Despite a rather low strikeout rate of 4.4 per game, he has demonstrated solid control with a low walk rate of 6.3%. However, he faces a challenging lineup in the Brewers, who have a penchant for drawing walks, ranking 3rd in MLB in this category.

On the other side, Civale has struggled with a 4.78 ERA, compounded by an xFIP suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this year. Both pitchers are projected to go around 5.3 innings, but Civale’s high flyball rate might play into the Athletics’ strength as they rank 4th in home runs with 132 this season.

While the Athletics offense ranks 20th overall, they boast power that could exploit Civale’s tendencies. Meanwhile, the projections suggest a close game, with the Athletics expected to score around 4.08 runs and the Brewers slightly ahead at 4.29 runs. As both teams strive for a crucial win, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle on the diamond.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Aaron Civale is projected to average 4.9 hits in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Andruw Monasterio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.7) suggests that Andruw Monasterio has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 5.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  This year, JP Sears has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a sinker), throwing it on 10.8% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+10.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 117 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+16.80 Units / 32% ROI)