Score Prediction and Insights for Twins vs Guardians Match – September 19, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 19, 2024, at Progressive Field, both teams find themselves in different positions within the American League Central standings. The Guardians are enjoying a successful season with an 88-65 record, pushing hard for the division title, while the Twins, at 80-72, aim to solidify their above-average season and potentially secure a playoff berth through a Wild Card spot.

The pitching matchup sees the Guardians sending Joey Cantillo, a lefty ranked #101 among starting pitchers, to the mound. Despite his 4.99 ERA, Cantillo’s xFIP of 3.61 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, indicating potential improvement. On the other side, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, a right-hander who has had 26 starts with a 4.08 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.60 suggests he’s had some fortune on his side this season and may regress.

Offensively, Cleveland boasts the 17th-best lineup, spotlighting their strength in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s lineup is 11th-best, with a solid batting average ranked 8th, but they lag behind in stolen bases, sitting at 29th.

In their previous encounters, Kyle Manzardo has been a standout for Cleveland, delivering a .273 average and a .930 OPS over the last week, while Willi Castro has emerged as a key contributor for the Twins with a .368 average and a 1.079 OPS in the same period.

Advanced projections, including THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favor the Guardians slightly with a 55% win probability, suggesting potential value in backing them. This is subtly higher than the betting market’s implied probability, which sees this matchup as a coin flip. With both teams holding an average implied team total of 4.00 runs and the game total set at 8.0 runs, this divisional battle promises to be a competitive affair.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Simeon Woods Richardson has recorded 14.8 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 17th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Matt Wallner has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.1-mph average to last season’s 97.1-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Joey Cantillo has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed bats in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.3) may lead us to conclude that Josh Naylor has had some very good luck this year with his 30.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 148 games (+11.22 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 76 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 38% ROI)