Score Prediction and Insights for Rockies vs Brewers Match – September 7, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on September 7, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Brewers, currently sitting at 81-60, are having a strong season and are in the thick of the playoff race, while the Rockies, with a dismal record of 53-89, are struggling significantly. This matchup is particularly important as it marks the second game in the series, and the Brewers look to build momentum after winning the first game decisively.

The Brewers will send Tobias Myers to the mound, a right-handed pitcher with an impressive ERA of 3.00 this season. Despite being ranked as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance has been solid, allowing an average of just 2.1 earned runs per game. However, his 4.15 xFIP indicates he might not sustain this level of success moving forward. On the other side, the Rockies will counter with Ty Blach, a left-handed pitcher struggling with a 6.65 ERA. Blach has had a tough season, and his projections suggest he may allow an average of 3.0 earned runs over just 4.5 innings, which is concerning for the Rockies.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 9th best in MLB, buoyed by a strong batting average of .265, which places them 5th overall. They have shown power and speed, ranking 10th in home runs and 2nd in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense ranks 21st, struggling to keep pace with the Brewers’ talent.

The projections favor the Brewers, who are expected to score around 4.89 runs, while the Rockies are projected for just 3.49 runs. With the Brewers being heavy betting favorites at a moneyline of -255, this matchup appears to heavily favor Milwaukee.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ty Blach – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Over his last 3 games started, Ty Blach has experienced a significant drop off in his fastball velocity: from 88.5 mph over the entire season to 87.2 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Michael Toglia is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .318 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Tobias Myers has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 119 games (+9.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+335/-490)
  Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 49 games (+25.95 Units / 53% ROI)