Score Prediction and Insights for Rays vs Marlins Match – May 18, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 18, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are looking to improve their underwhelming seasons. The Marlins, with a record of 17-27, find themselves struggling, while the Rays sit slightly better at 21-24. The Marlins’ bullpen, currently ranked 29th in MLB, poses a significant challenge for them, and their season has not seen many bright spots.

In their last game, the Marlins lost to the Rays, continuing a rough stretch for the team. With Cal Quantrill projected to start for the Marlins, fans may be concerned given his 7.00 ERA this season, placing him as the 297th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his xFIP of 4.84 suggests he could be due for a turnaround despite a tough start. On the other hand, Rays’ Shane Baz, with a much more respectable 5.02 ERA and a ranking of 58th, is expected to be a stronger presence on the mound.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 17th in MLB, but they struggle to hit home runs, sitting at 22nd in that category. Their offensive performance has been average, with their best hitter recently posting a .364 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rays’ offense has had its challenges, ranking 23rd overall, yet they excel with a 3rd place ranking in stolen bases, highlighting their speed on the basepaths.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting odds favor the Rays, who have an implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Marlins’ 3.84. As both teams vie for a crucial victory, the matchup between Quantrill and Baz could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph is in the 92nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Brandon Lowe will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Bats such as Derek Hill with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane Baz who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Connor Norby has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 47% ROI)