Score Prediction and Insights for Phillies vs Dodgers Match – August 5, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in strong positions in the standings. The Dodgers sit at 65-47, while the Phillies are slightly ahead at 66-45. This matchup features two of the league’s elite teams, making it a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

In their last games, the Dodgers pulled off a narrow 3-2 victory over the Athletics, while the Phillies dominated the Mariners with a commanding 6-0 shutout. The Phillies’ recent success showcases their powerful offense, which ranks 6th in home runs this season, but they will face a challenging test against Dodgers’ starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow, who is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, has been performing at an elite level, ranking as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. This season, he holds an impressive 3.50 ERA and an even better 2.67 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and could be due for an even stronger performance. However, he faces a potent Phillies lineup that has tallied 124 home runs this year.

On the other side, Aaron Nola, ranked 27th among starting pitchers, is also having a solid season with an ERA of 3.43. Nola’s low walk rate of 6.2% could help him navigate the Dodgers’ patient offense, which ranks 2nd in the league in drawing walks.

According to projections, the Dodgers are favored in this matchup, with a projected average of 4.82 runs compared to the Phillies’ 4.45. Given the Dodgers’ strong offensive rankings and Glasnow’s elite status on the mound, they appear well-positioned to secure a win in this high-stakes contest.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given the 1.01 discrepancy between Aaron Nola’s 8.58 K/9 and his 9.59 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  In terms of his batting average, Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year. His .312 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .254.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tyler Glasnow’s 2553-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 97th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order grades out as the strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+5.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 94 games (+17.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Austin Hays has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)