Score Prediction and Insights for D-Backs vs Red Sox Match – August 25, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 25, 2024, both teams are in the midst of competitive seasons. The Red Sox sit at 67-61, showcasing an above-average performance, while the Diamondbacks lead with a solid 74-56 record, indicating a strong showing this year. This matchup holds significance as it marks the third game in their series, with the Red Sox aiming to bounce back after their last game.

The Red Sox’s pitching will rely on Tanner Houck, who has been a consistent presence on the mound with an 8-8 record and a commendable 3.01 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 3.67 SIERA indicates potential for regression. Houck is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which might be a concern given his tendency to give up 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

On the other side, Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks brings a 3-0 record and a solid 3.63 ERA, although he has only started six games this year. His low strikeout rate (19.6 K%) could be a factor, especially against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in MLB, known for their ability to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

The projections favor the Red Sox, who are expected to score around 5.23 runs, compared to the Diamondbacks’ 4.60 runs. With the Red Sox’s offense, which boasts the 4th best ranking in MLB, they have the potential to exploit Kelly’s weaknesses. As they look to secure a win, the Red Sox’s offensive firepower could prove decisive in this tightly contested matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Merrill Kelly’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (66.1% compared to 57.8% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Jake McCarthy is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 77.4-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 80 games (+19.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 96 games (+20.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 26 games (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)