Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)-120
As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Cubs, with a solid record of 78-59, are looking to solidify their playoff aspirations, while the Braves, at 62-75, are struggling to find their footing this season. The Cubs are coming off a strong performance, having won their last game, adding pressure on the Braves to respond.
On the mound, the Cubs will send Colin Rea to the hill, who, despite being ranked 220th among MLB starting pitchers, has a respectable 10-6 record this year. His ERA of 4.23 suggests he’s had some good fortune, as indicated by his higher xERA of 4.96, hinting at potential struggles ahead. Rea projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, but he’s also expected to give up an alarming average of 5.0 hits and 1.7 walks.
In contrast, Spencer Strider of the Braves is having a rough season, currently holding a 5-12 record and an ERA of 4.95. However, he ranks 46th in MLB, suggesting he has the talent to bounce back. Strider’s projections indicate he may pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his 6.6 strikeouts per game could pose a challenge for the Cubs’ hitters.
The Cubs offense has been performing at a high level, ranking 7th in MLB, while the Braves sit at 14th. The projections indicate a slight edge for the Cubs, who are expected to score an average of 4.14 runs, compared to the Braves’ 3.86. With a strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, the Cubs seem set for a favorable matchup in this series opener at Wrigley Field.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Spencer Strider – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Given the 1.09 deviation between Spencer Strider’s 9.81 K/9 and his 10.90 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see positive regression going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Marcell Ozuna’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 75.6-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Atlanta Braves with a 20.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Colin Rea’s fastball velocity has risen 1 mph this season (93.3 mph) over where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.379) implies that Seiya Suzuki has had bad variance on his side this year with his .343 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- The 10.2% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs makes them the #4 group of hitters in the game this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+17.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ignacio Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+130)Ignacio Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 26% ROI)