Score Prediction and Insights for Astros vs Guardians Match – September 27, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians gear up to host the Houston Astros at Progressive Field on September 27, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League showdown. The Guardians, with a season record of 92-67, are having a stellar season and are poised to secure their playoff position. Meanwhile, the Astros, at 86-73, are also vying for a postseason spot, making this matchup crucial for both sides.

Cleveland’s Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher, is set to take the mound against Houston’s Ronel Blanco, a right-hander. Cantillo, ranked the #94 starting pitcher in MLB, has had a bit of bad luck this season, as indicated by his 4.63 ERA and a more promising 3.64 xFIP. Though his projections for this game indicate he may struggle, particularly with allowing hits and walks, there’s hope for improvement. Blanco, on the other hand, boasts an impressive 2.88 ERA, but his 4.10 xFIP suggests he might not sustain this level of performance.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 16th in MLB, with standout performances in stolen bases (5th) and home runs (12th). Jose Ramirez continues to be a key contributor, boasting a .279 batting average and a .867 OPS this season. Over the past week, he’s been on fire, hitting .500 with three home runs. The Astros’ offense, ranked 9th overall, is highlighted by Yordan Alvarez’s .308 batting average and .959 OPS. Kyle Tucker has also been hot recently, hitting .450 in his last five games.

The Guardians are slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, reflecting a 52% implied win probability. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives them a 55% chance of victory, suggesting some value for bettors. As both teams battle for playoff positioning, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 61.7% of the time, grading out in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#2-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 74 games at home (+13.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 138 games (+14.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-190)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)