Score Prediction and Insights for Astros vs Guardians Match – September 27, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros are set to clash on September 27, 2024, at Progressive Field, marking the first game of their series. With the Guardians holding a 92-67 record, they are enjoying a great season. Meanwhile, the Astros, at 86-73, are having an above-average season and remain competitive. This American League showdown features both teams vying for playoff positioning, adding an extra layer of intensity to the matchup.

On the mound, the Guardians will start lefty Joey Cantillo, who has had an average season with a 4.63 ERA and a 3.64 xFIP, suggesting some bad luck in his performances. Cantillo’s projected to pitch 4.8 innings, which is below average, potentially leaving a lot of work for Cleveland’s bullpen. Fortunately, the Guardians’ relief corps ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, providing a reliable safety net.

Opposing him is Ronel Blanco for the Astros. While Blanco boasts an impressive 2.88 ERA, his 4.10 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate on the mound and might be due for regression. He’s projected to pitch 5.2 innings, which is average, but his high ERA is masked by luck, offering some hope for the Guardians’ hitters.

Offensively, Houston ranks 9th best in MLB, with standout performances in batting average (3rd) and power (10th in home runs), adding firepower to their lineup. Conversely, Cleveland’s offense is more balanced, ranking 16th overall, with a particular emphasis on speed, as evidenced by their 5th rank in stolen bases.

The betting market sees this as a close contest, with the Guardians slightly favored with a moneyline of -125. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Astros a 51% win probability, 4% higher than the market suggests, hinting at potential value in backing Houston in this intriguing matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 61.7% of the time, grading out in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Cleveland Guardians offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line -1.5 (+175)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 74 games at home (+13.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 138 games (+14.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)