Score for White Sox vs Marlins Game – 05 July 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox are set to face off on July 5, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be a battle between two struggling teams. Both teams are enduring rough seasons, with the Marlins sitting at 30-57 and the White Sox at 25-64. Despite their records, this Interleague matchup brings some intrigue, especially from a betting perspective.

On the mound for the Marlins will be Bryan Hoeing, a right-handed pitcher who has been a mixed bag this season. Although his ERA stands at an impressive 1.83, his xFIP of 3.32 suggests he has been quite fortunate and may regress. Hoeing’s last start was a disaster, allowing 9 earned runs over just 3 innings. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Hoeing to pitch 4.1 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs while striking out 3.0 batters, which is below average.

The White Sox counter with Drew Thorpe, another righty. Thorpe’s ERA of 4.43 is average, but his 5.21 xFIP indicates he too has benefited from some luck. Thorpe pitched well in his last outing, going 6 innings and allowing 2 earned runs. Projections have Thorpe pitching 5.3 innings and allowing 2.6 earned runs today. His high flyball rate could be mitigated by the Marlins’ lack of power, as Miami ranks last in the league in home runs.

Offensively, both teams rank near the bottom in most categories. The Marlins are 30th in overall offense and home runs, while the White Sox are 29th in offense and 26th in home runs. However, the Marlins have a slight edge in batting average, ranking 23rd compared to the White Sox’s 28th.

Betting markets have the Marlins as slight favorites with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. THE BAT X projects a 57% win probability for Miami, suggesting some value on the Marlins. With both teams struggling, the Marlins’ slight edge in pitching and bullpen depth could be the difference-maker in this closely contested game.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+120)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme groundball batters like Eloy Jimenez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Hoeing.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Bryan Hoeing – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Hoeing to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 69 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 11.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 away games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)