Score for Rays vs Mariners Game – August 28, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays prepare for their third matchup in this series on August 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight spot in the standings, with records of 67-66 and 66-66, respectively. The Mariners are slightly ahead, but both teams are having average seasons and are not in contention for their divisions.

In their last encounter on August 27, the Mariners fell to the Rays by a score of 3-2, marking a disappointing outcome for a team that had been favored to win. This loss highlights the struggles of the Mariners’ offense, which ranks 28th in MLB, particularly against a high-strikeout pitcher like Drew Rasmussen. The projections suggest that Rasmussen, who boasts a 33.3% strikeout rate this year, could exploit the Mariners’ weakness, as they lead the league in strikeouts.

Luis Castillo is projected to take the mound for the Mariners. While he has had a solid season with a 3.66 ERA and a Power Ranking of 43rd among starting pitchers, he was hit hard in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 6 innings. His ability to limit hits will be crucial, especially considering he projects to allow 4.5 hits on average today, which is concerning.

On the other hand, Rasmussen has been effective, with a stellar 2.70 ERA, and he projects to allow just 0.5 earned runs today. The projections favor the Mariners slightly, suggesting they have a 63% chance to win, despite their recent struggles. As both teams look to gain momentum, this matchup could be pivotal in determining their paths moving forward.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jose Siri has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last season’s 94-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 62.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Tampa Bay’s #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games at home (+18.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 129 games (+28.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Mitch Garver has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 85% ROI)