Score for Guardians vs Cardinals Game – September 22, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians at Busch Stadium on September 22, 2024, both teams look to assert themselves in this interleague matchup. The Cardinals, sitting at 78-77, have had an average season, while the Guardians, with a 90-66 record, are enjoying a great season. The Guardians are in the heat of a playoff race, adding extra pressure to this third game of the series after a narrow 6-5 loss to the Cardinals on September 21.

On the mound, the Cardinals will start Andre Pallante, who recently showcased his potential with a stellar performance on September 16, pitching seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts. Pallante, ranked as the 90th best pitcher, has been solid this season with a 3.87 ERA. On the other side, Gavin Williams will take the mound for the Guardians. Despite a rough 3-10 record and a 5.12 ERA, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky, indicating potential for better performances ahead. Williams, ranked 77th, performed decently in his last start, striking out seven over five innings.

Offensively, the Cardinals rely on Paul Goldschmidt, who continues to be a key contributor with 21 home runs this season. Ivan Herrera has been hot lately, hitting .545 with a 1.524 OPS over the last week. The Guardians, boasting the 12th most home runs and 5th in stolen bases, are led by Jose Ramirez, who has been a powerhouse with 37 home runs and a .856 OPS.

In terms of betting, the Cardinals hold a slight edge with a -125 moneyline, reflecting an implied win probability of 53%. Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Cardinals with the same win probability, suggesting a closely contested game with an expected low-scoring affair, as both teams are projected to score under four runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Gavin Williams has tallied 14.1 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 7th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of St. Louis (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 68.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Batting from the same side that Gavin Williams throws from, Paul Goldschmidt faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 away games (+15.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)