Score for Braves vs Mets Game – July 26, 2024

Atlanta Braves

@

New York Mets

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will square off on July 26, 2024, at Citi Field for the second game of their National League East series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mets holding a record of 54-48 and the Braves sitting at 54-47. This matchup could have significant implications for the division standings.

The Mets, who took the first game of the series, will look to build on that momentum. Jeff McNeil has been a standout over the last week, boasting a .417 batting average with four home runs and a 1.423 OPS in his last seven games. He will be a key player to watch as the Mets aim to extend their winning streak.

Kodai Senga, ranked as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, will take the mound for the Mets. Senga, a right-hander, has been solid this season and is projected to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.4 batters. Despite some struggles with hits and walks allowed, his overall performance has been good, giving the Mets an edge.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Charlie Morton. Morton has had an up-and-down year with a 5-5 record and a 3.92 ERA. The projections suggest he’ll pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters. Morton’s high-groundball rate (48 GB%) could be a crucial factor against a Mets lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 132 home runs this season.

The Mets’ offense, ranked 7th best in MLB, will look to capitalize on Morton’s weaknesses, particularly his propensity to allow hits and walks. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense, while middle-of-the-pack at 16th, has shown power with a 10th place ranking in team home runs.

Both bullpens are fairly average, with the Braves slightly better at 11th best compared to the Mets’ 18th, but this game could easily come down to the starting pitching duel. The Mets are favored with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%, while the Braves are the underdogs at +120 with a 44% implied win probability.

Overall, the Mets have a slight edge heading into this matchup, supported by Senga’s strong projections and a potent offense. Look for them to try to build on their recent success and take another game from their division rivals.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Charlie Morton must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot this year: 62.8% of the time, placing in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Adam Duvall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Adam Duvall has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 80.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .319 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .331 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Among all SPs, Kodai Senga’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Jose Iglesias has been lucky this year, compiling a .412 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .289 — a .123 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Mets bats as a unit rank 3rd- in the league for power this year when judging by their 9.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 97 games (+14.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 88 games (+29.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)