Royals vs Tigers Insights and Game Breakdown – 4/18/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on April 18, 2025, both teams find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum in the American League Central. The Tigers, boasting an 11-8 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Royals languish at 8-12, struggling to find consistency. In their previous matchup on April 17, the Tigers triumphed decisively, winning 6-1, further highlighting their current form.

On the mound, the Tigers are set to start Jackson Jobe, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season, with a 3.00 ERA after three starts. However, advanced projections indicate he may be due for a regression given his higher xFIP of 4.94. Jobe’s last outing on April 12 was impressive, as he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs. Conversely, the Royals will counter with Cole Ragans, a left-handed ace ranked 7th among MLB starters. Ragans has been effective with a 2.28 ERA and a remarkable 36.6% strikeout rate, making him a significant threat to the Tigers’ offense, which ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Despite the Tigers’ offensive prowess, their ranking of 9th overall may not reflect the challenges they face today. The projections indicate a low implied team total of 3.49 runs, suggesting that even with their recent success, they may struggle against Ragans. Meanwhile, the Royals’ offense, which ranks 29th overall, faces a tough task against a Tigers bullpen that is considered the 6th best in MLB.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Cole Ragans’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 80th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jackson Jobe.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Jackson Jobe is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Kerry Carpenter is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Andy Ibanez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Today, Andy Ibanez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 60% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Riley Greene has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.70 Units / 97% ROI)