Royals vs Red Sox Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 7/13/24

Kansas City Royals

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals face off at Fenway Park on July 13, 2024, in the second game of their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 51-42 record and the Royals at 52-43. In their last matchup on July 12, the Royals triumphed over the Red Sox with a decisive 6-1 victory.

On the mound for the Red Sox is Kutter Crawford, who has been solid this season with a 3.20 ERA and a 5-7 record over 19 starts. Despite his impressive ERA, Crawford’s 4.00 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this year. In his last start on July 7, Crawford was stellar, pitching 7 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts, 4 hits, and no walks.

The Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, who has been even more impressive with an 11-3 record and a 2.21 ERA over 19 starts. However, Lugo’s 3.73 xFIP indicates he, too, has benefited from some luck. In his last outing on July 6, Lugo delivered a quality start, allowing 2 earned runs over 6 innings with 5 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast the 8th-best lineup in MLB, excelling in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Jarren Duran has been their standout hitter, with a .275 batting average and a .804 OPS. Meanwhile, Rafael Devers has been red-hot over the past week, hitting .348 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last 6 games.

The Royals’ offense, ranked 15th, is led by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been outstanding with a .327 batting average and a .941 OPS. Witt has been particularly impressive lately, batting .429 with 2 home runs in his last 5 games.

The Red Sox bullpen, ranked 27th, has been a weak spot, while the Royals’ bullpen ranks 22nd. This could be pivotal in a game projected to be high-scoring, with a total of 9.0 runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Red Sox with a 56% win probability, slightly higher than their implied probability of 55%. Given their strong offensive lineup and home-field advantage, Boston is poised to bounce back from yesterday’s loss.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.1-mph decline from last year’s 92.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Adam Frazier has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Kansas City Royals (21 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a big advantage over flyball hitters, Kutter Crawford and his 41.3% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in this matchup facing 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Rafael Devers has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.9-mph to 97.1-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.20 Units / 42% ROI)