Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
(-120/+100)-140
On May 2, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in the first game of a series. Both teams are struggling for consistency, with the Orioles holding a 12-18 record, while the Royals have fared slightly better at 17-15. Baltimore is looking to turn around what has been a disappointing season, while Kansas City is trying to build on their above-average start.
In their last game, the Baltimore Orioles managed to secure a narrow victory, providing them with a much-needed boost after a tough stretch. Meanwhile, the Orioles are projected to send Dean Kremer to the mound, who has had a rough year so far, recording an ERA of 7.04 and a 2-4 record. The projections do suggest that Kremer might have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.78 indicates he could see improvement. However, he will face a Royals offense that, despite ranking as the 30th best in MLB, has been less prone to strikeouts, which could embolden them against Kremer’s low strikeout rate.
On the other side, the Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, who has been much more effective with a solid 3.38 ERA and a Power Ranking of 74th among starting pitchers. Wacha’s style features a slightly above-average projection for innings pitched and strikeouts, but he also shows some vulnerability with a higher xFIP. The Royals’ offense struggles significantly with power, ranking 30th in home runs, but they have been somewhat resilient in recent games.
The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. The Orioles’ current moneyline stands at -135, suggesting that betting markets anticipate a close contest. With both teams facing challenges, this game presents a critical opportunity for the Orioles to capitalize on their home-field advantage and build momentum.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Extreme flyball batters like Maikel Garcia tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Dean Kremer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- It may be smart to expect better results for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Dean Kremer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Dean Kremer’s curveball percentage has spiked by 5.9% from last season to this one (11.4% to 17.3%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Jackson Holliday has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Baltimore Orioles hitters collectively grade out 5th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.6% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 68% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)