Royals vs Cardinals Expert Picks and Betting Guide – July 09, 2024

Kansas City Royals

@

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals are set to face off on July 9, 2024, at Busch Stadium in an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Cardinals boasting a 48-42 record, while the Royals are just a game better at 49-43. This will be the first game of their series, and both teams are coming off impressive wins. The Cardinals blanked the Nationals 6-0 on July 8, while the Royals dominated the Rockies 10-1.

Starting on the mound for the Cardinals will be Andre Pallante, who has a 4-3 record and a solid 4.00 ERA this season. Pallante, who ranks as the 100th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been versatile, with 7 starts and 16 bullpen appearances. His projected 5.7 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed suggest a decent outing, though his low strikeout rate (18.7 K%) might be a concern against a Royals offense that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, the Royals will send Michael Wacha to the hill. Wacha has a 5-6 record with a slightly better 3.74 ERA###102, ranking him 70th among starting pitchers. His projections are similar to Pallante’s, with 5.5 innings and 2.4 earned runs allowed. However, Wacha’s higher strikeout rate (5.1 projected strikeouts) could be a key advantage against a Cardinals offense that ranks 18th best in MLB.

Offensively, the Royals have the edge with a 15th-ranked offense compared to the Cardinals’ 18th. Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout for Kansas City, hitting .324 with a .936 OPS this season. Witt has been hot lately, batting .500 with 3 home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, Nolan Gorman has been the Cardinals’ best hitter over the past 7 games, boasting a .478 average.

Bullpen strength could be a decisive factor, with the Cardinals’ bullpen ranked 5th best in MLB, while the Royals’ bullpen languishes at 25th. This disparity could tilt the game in favor of St. Louis, especially in a close contest.

The Cardinals are currently slight favorites with a moneyline of -115, implying a 51% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 54% chance to win, slightly higher than the implied odds. With a projected close game, the Cardinals’ superior bullpen and home-field advantage might just give them the edge.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 91.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Michael Wacha places in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+160)
  Adam Frazier’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.2-mph mark last season has decreased to 84.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Andre Pallante’s high usage percentage of his fastball (71% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.4) may lead us to conclude that Willson Contreras has experienced some positive variance this year with his 28.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+175)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+8.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-190)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.05 Units / 27% ROI)