Royals vs Braves Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/29/2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Kansas City Royals at Truist Park on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves eyeing postseason aspirations. The Braves, who boast an 88-71 record, are in the midst of a solid season and look to solidify their position in the standings. Meanwhile, the Royals at 85-76 are having an above-average year and are keen to close the gap in the playoff race. The Braves took a 2-1 victory against the Royals on September 28, with Charlie Morton starting once again for the Braves after an average outing last time, where he pitched six innings and allowed four earned runs.

Atlanta’s lineup has been a powerhouse, especially in terms of home run output, ranking 4th in MLB. Their offensive catalyst, Marcell Ozuna, has been stellar, contributing 39 home runs and maintaining a .306 batting average. In contrast, the Royals’ offense, led by Bobby Witt Jr., boasts a strong .332 batting average and a noteworthy 0.980 OPS, highlighting his dual threat at the plate. The Royals have also excelled on the basepaths, ranking 10th in stolen bases.

Pitching-wise, the Braves turn to Charlie Morton, whose 4.08 ERA suggests a slightly above-average performance, despite his lower Power Rankings position at 121st. Morton projects to deliver an average performance, allowing just over two earned runs and striking out about 5.5 batters. On the other side, Alec Marsh takes the mound for Kansas City. Marsh’s peripheral stats, such as a 4.05 SIERA, indicate he may outperform his current ERA of 4.65, suggesting a potential valuable underdog bet.

The Braves are favored with a moneyline of -205, suggesting a 65% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees more value in the Royals, projecting a win probability 7% higher than market odds. With their bullpen ranked 11th and Marsh’s potential to surprise, betting on the Royals might just be a smart play for those willing to back an underdog poised for an upset.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Alec Marsh – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Alec Marsh figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last year’s 90.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Kansas City Royals (21.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Charlie Morton has compiled a 24.9% strikeout rate this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ozzie Albies has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 12.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 18.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 151 games (+34.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)