Rockies vs Reds Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – (Wednesday July 10, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies are set to clash on July 10, 2024, in the third game of their series at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, who are 44-48 this season, are having a below-average year but have shown signs of life recently, winning their last game against the Rockies 12-6. Cincinnati’s offense erupted in that game, and they’ll look to carry that momentum forward. The Rockies, on the other hand, are struggling with a 32-60 record and face an uphill battle as the series continues.

Taking the mound for the Reds is Frankie Montas, a right-handed pitcher currently ranked as the 98th best starter in MLB. Montas has a 4-6 record with a 4.19 ERA, but his peripheral stats like a 4.76 SIERA suggest he’s been a bit lucky and could regress. He projects to go 5.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters. Montas faces a Rockies lineup that ranks 18th in offense, with notable power struggles, ranking 23rd in home runs. However, the high-strikeout Rockies could play into Montas’s hands, as the Reds’ starter has been effective in those matchups.

Kyle Freeland will start for the Rockies. The lefty has had a tough season with a 0-3 record and a 6.62 ERA. Despite these poor numbers, his 4.90 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Freeland projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, and striking out 4.1 batters. He’ll face a Reds offense that ranks 20th overall but is 1st in stolen bases, adding a dynamic element to their game.

Both bullpens are among the worst in MLB, with the Reds ranked 26th and the Rockies 24th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially considering the game total is set at 9.0 runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Reds as favorites with a 58% win probability, slightly lower than their implied 62% from the betting market. The Rockies, given their underdog status and the potential value in their odds, could be an intriguing bet for those willing to take a risk on a team looking to turn their fortunes around.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kyle Freeland’s 91.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 3-mph rise from last year’s 88.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Nolan Jones has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ryan McMahon has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Frankie Montas has recorded 14.5 outs per start this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Colorado (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+10.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 away games (+21.00 Units / 105% ROI)