Rockies vs Phillies Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 4/03/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies meet for the third game of their series on April 3, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, sitting at 4-1, are off to an excellent start this season, showcasing one of the league’s best offenses, ranked 3rd overall. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling at 1-4, with their offense ranking as the 5th worst in MLB. Just yesterday, the Phillies secured a convincing victory over the Rockies, winning 5-1, further emphasizing the divergence in their current form.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Taijuan Walker, who has struggled lately, famously getting hit hard in his last outing on September 19, 2024, allowing 8 earned runs in just 3 innings. His current Power Ranking places him as the 294th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he falls among the league’s worst. Walker’s projections suggest he might go around 5.2 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, which reflects poor performance potential.

On the flip side, the Rockies will send out Antonio Senzatela, also struggling with his form but boasting an impressive 0.00 ERA this season. However, his 6.57 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate thus far, and projections suggest that he may allow around 3.2 earned runs in roughly 5.1 innings of work.

With the Phillies’ offense leading the league in batting average and ranked 1st overall, they are expected to capitalize on Senzatela’s luck running out. Furthermore, the Rockies’ offense has shown little firepower, ranking near the bottom in multiple offensive categories. The current odds heavily favor the Phillies at a moneyline of -200 and an implied team total of 5.80 runs. Given the stark contrast in form and offensive capabilities, the Phillies are poised to continue their winning ways against the Rockies.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Antonio Senzatela has tallied 12.3 outs per GS since the start of last season, checking in at the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+335/-490)
  Brenton Doyle’s quickness has declined this year. His 29.31 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.07 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Taijuan Walker’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (59.7% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bryce Harper has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 22.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 106 games (+12.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+180)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 40 games (+4.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 98% ROI)