Rockies vs Dodgers Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/21/2024

Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the National League West matchup continues, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on September 21, 2024. The Dodgers are cruising through a strong season with a 92-62 record, sitting comfortably as a top contender, while the Rockies, at 59-95, languish at the bottom of the standings with a difficult season.

In Friday’s series opener, the Dodgers emerged victorious with a 6-4 win over the Rockies. Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers’ offensive powerhouse, contributed significantly, adding another chapter to his stellar season. Ohtani’s season stats are impressive, with a .297 batting average and a remarkable 1.013 OPS, solidifying his crucial role in the Dodgers’ lineup.

Saturday’s game will feature Walker Buehler for the Dodgers and Cal Quantrill for the Rockies on the mound. Buehler, despite his struggles this season with a 5.54 ERA, is facing a high-strikeout Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge. His recent performance offered glimpses of improvement with six strong innings in his last outing.

Quantrill, with a 4.68 ERA, faces a daunting task against one of the best offenses in the league. The Dodgers rank 2nd in overall offense and are known for their patience at the plate, ranking 3rd in walks. This could spell trouble for Quantrill, who struggles with control, as suggested by his 10.3% walk rate. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 68% chance of victory, slightly under their implied win probability of 71%, making them a projected favorite in this contest.

With the Dodgers continuing their march toward the postseason, every game carries weight. While Colorado’s season is all but over, the Dodgers look to maintain their momentum as the playoffs approach, making this matchup intriguing for both teams.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Cal Quantrill’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2129 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2186 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In terms of his home runs, Sam Hilliard has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 34.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.6.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Colorado Rockies makes them the #10 offense in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Walker Buehler has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Teoscar Hernandez has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 77 games (+17.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+240)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+6.89 Units / 38% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-185)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Walks Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)