Review the Yankees vs Royals Match Preview and Winning Probability – October 9th, 2024

New York Yankees

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees gear up for Game 3 of their American League Division Series matchup on October 9, 2024, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the series tied 1-1, both teams are vying for a crucial win at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals claimed a 4-2 victory in their last outing on October 7, showcasing their ability to keep the Yankees’ high-powered offense in check.

Kansas City will hand the ball to Seth Lugo, who has been solid this year with a 16-9 record and an impressive 3.00 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.83 suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. Despite this, Lugo’s control has been a strong point, as evidenced by his low 5.7 BB% this season. This could be a key factor against the Yankees, who lead MLB in walks. Lugo’s ability to limit free passes could neutralize one of New York’s offensive strengths.

On the mound for the Yankees is Clarke Schmidt, sporting a 5-5 record with an excellent 2.85 ERA. Much like Lugo, Schmidt’s xFIP of 3.92 hints at some luck, and his projections are far from stellar. Schmidt faces a Royals lineup that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts, potentially diluting his high-strikeout approach. Kansas City’s offense, ranked 14th overall, has been respectable, particularly in batting average, where they sit at 9th.

Offensively, both teams boast firepower. The Yankees, ranked 3rd in offense and 1st in home runs, look to Aaron Judge, who brings a .320 average and a 1.151 OPS to the plate. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. leads their charge, batting .327 with a .959 OPS.

With betting odds slightly favoring the Yankees at a -115 line and an implied win probability of 51%, the Royals, at -105, have the potential to defy expectations in what promises to be a tightly contested game.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Clarke Schmidt in the 81st percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-120)
  The 2nd-worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Michael Massey is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 102 games (+17.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 away games (+12.50 Units / 67% ROI)