New York Yankees
Colorado Rockies
(-105/-115)+265
As the New York Yankees visit Coors Field on May 24, 2025, they face off against the Colorado Rockies in the second game of their interleague series. The Yankees are riding high with a solid 30-20 record, firmly positioned as one of the top teams in MLB. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling significantly with a dismal 9-42 record, underscoring a season filled with challenges.
In their last matchup, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, dominating the Rockies. With the Yankees boasting the 1st best offense in MLB, they are set to exploit a Rockies pitching staff that is among the league’s worst. Yankees ace Max Fried, currently ranked 5th among starting pitchers, is projected to continue his stellar form, having notched a perfect 6-0 record with an impressive ERA of 1.29. Fried’s ability to generate ground balls (51% GB rate) will be crucial against a Rockies lineup that has struggled to find power, ranking 27th in home runs.
On the other hand, the Rockies are set to start Kyle Freeland, who has yet to secure a win this season, holding a 0-6 record and a troubling ERA of 5.68. Despite a low walk rate of 4.3 BB%, Freeland faces a Yankees offense known for being patient and drawing walks. The projections suggest that Freeland could be in for a tough outing, as he is likely to allow around 3.7 earned runs and strike out just 3.9 batters on average.
With the Yankees heavily favored, their moneyline of -335 reflects their dominance in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Rockies are viewed as massive underdogs at +280. Given the current odds and the teams’ contrasting forms, bettors may want to lean toward the Yankees to extend their winning streak against a Rockies team that continues to struggle.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-315)Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #6 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Paul Goldschmidt has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 9.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 7 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has gone to his non-fastballs 5.4% more often this year (60.6%) than he did last year (55.2%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Jordan Beck has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last year’s 90.2-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.17 Units / 24% ROI)
- New York Yankees – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Tyler Freeman has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 48% ROI)