Review the Yankees vs Guardians Match Preview and Winning Probability – October 17th, 2024

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees face off in a pivotal American League Championship matchup on October 17, 2024, at Progressive Field. The Yankees, with a slight edge according to betting markets, are projected at a 51% win probability. They bring one of the league’s most potent offenses, ranking 3rd overall and 2nd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Guardians, ranked 17th in offense, will lean on their speed, boasting the 5th most stolen bases this season.

On the mound, Cleveland’s Matthew Boyd, ranked 50th among MLB starters, will look to leverage his excellent 2.72 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts a challenging outing. Boyd’s high-flyball tendencies could play into the Yankees’ power-heavy lineup, making it crucial for him to manage contact effectively.

Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees’ starter, is not far behind Boyd in the rankings at 53rd. He also sports an impressive 2.85 ERA, though his xFIP indicates some luck as well. Schmidt’s high-strikeout ability faces a test against Cleveland’s disciplined lineup, which ranks 6th in avoiding strikeouts.

Both teams boast strong bullpens, with Cleveland ranked 6th and New York 7th, suggesting late-game scoring could be at a premium. The Guardians’ Brayan Rocchio has been red-hot, hitting .500 with a 1.248 OPS over the last week, providing a spark they hope to ignite against Schmidt.

In the previous matchup, the Yankees managed to edge out Cleveland, setting the stage for another tightly contested game. With both teams looking to gain an advantage in the series, this game promises to deliver a compelling battle as each side aims to capitalize on their strengths.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-110)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  When assessing his batting average skill, Aaron Judge is projected as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Boyd is projected to throw 62 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Andres Gimenez is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+15.05 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 111 games (+18.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)