Minnesota Twins
Boston Red Sox
As the calendar inches toward the end of September, the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins square off at the iconic Fenway Park in what is the first game of a double-header on September 22, 2024. With the American League in its final sprint toward the postseason, the Twins, who are having an above-average season with an 81-73 record, are looking to bolster their playoff aspirations. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, sitting at 76-78, are playing for pride after their elimination from the division race.
The Red Sox are coming off a win in yesterday’s series opener against the Twins and will send Nick Pivetta to the mound. Pivetta, known for his slightly unlucky season with a 4.37 ERA and a much better 3.43 xFIP, is ranked as the 82nd best starting pitcher. His average projection for today’s game includes 5.3 innings pitched, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.6 batters. Despite an unimpressive win-loss record of 5-11, Pivetta could help the Red Sox play spoiler.
On the other side, the Twins counter with Pablo Lopez, an elite pitcher ranked 14th. Lopez owns a 3.84 ERA this season and has shown signs of unluckiness with a 3.32 xFIP. His projections for today include 5.6 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs allowed, and 7 strikeouts. Lopez will aim to use his arsenal to suppress Boston’s potent offense, which ranks 8th in MLB for both overall and home run capabilities.
While betting markets slightly favor the Twins with a -130 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests better value might be found with the Red Sox, who have a projected win probability of 50%. Factor in a solid week from Boston’s Trevor Story, who boasts a 0.868 OPS over the last seven games, and there’s reason to be optimistic about Boston’s chances of swinging for the fences and pulling off an upset against Lopez and the Twins.