Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
(+100/-120)-135
As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on October 5, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this American League Division Series matchup. The Guardians, boasting a solid bullpen ranked 4th in the Power Rankings, are slight favorites with a moneyline of -150, translating to an implied win probability of 57%. Cleveland’s playoff hopes are bolstered by their average offensive rank, with notable strengths in home runs and stolen bases.
The Guardians will send Tanner Bibee to the mound, a right-hander ranked 41st among starting pitchers in MLB. Bibee’s season has been marked by a respectable 12-8 win-loss record and a strong 3.47 ERA. However, his projections for this game suggest potential struggles in longevity and control, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched and 1.2 walks allowed. His projected 5.7 strikeouts, while average, could be pivotal against a Tigers lineup that ranks 25th in overall offense.
The Tigers counter with Tyler Holton, a lefty ranked 58th in MLB starting pitchers. Holton has been effective out of the bullpen, featuring an impressive 2.19 ERA. His expected performance today, however, could be limited to just 1.6 innings. While his ERA suggests excellence, a 3.68 xFIP indicates potential regression. Detroit’s offense, struggling with a low ranking in batting average and home runs, will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Bibee.
The Guardians’ implied team total of 3.79 runs suggests a modest offensive output, while the Tigers face an uphill battle with a very low implied team total of 3.21 runs. With both teams possessing strong bullpens, the game total of 7.0 runs reflects the anticipated pitching duel. As the series opener, this game sets the tone for both squads in their quest for postseason success.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+115)Among every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Today, Zach McKinstry is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Recording 92.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Tanner Bibee ranks in the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-135)The 2nd-weakest projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Cleveland Guardians.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+15.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-190)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 42 away games (+19.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+225/-305)Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)