Review the Reds vs Phillies Match Preview and Winning Probability – July 4th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on July 4, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 51-36, positioning them well in the National League. In contrast, the Reds sit at 45-42, showing they’re above average but lacking the same level of consistency. The stakes are high, especially as both teams aim to solidify their playoff aspirations.

In their last game, the Phillies showcased their dominance, with Jesus Luzardo leading the charge on the mound. Luzardo, who is projected to start this game, holds a solid 7-4 record this season, but his 4.06 ERA this year raises some questions about his effectiveness, despite being considered the 38th best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics. His projected performance, averaging 5.6 innings with a tendency to allow 2.6 earned runs, suggests he may be due for a breakout.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has impressed with a stellar 1.79 ERA and a 7-1 record this season. Abbott’s numbers may indicate good fortune, as his xFIP of 4.08 suggests he might not maintain this level of success. With both pitchers being left-handed, the matchup could be pivotal, particularly given the Phillies’ 8th-best offense in MLB, contrasted with the Reds’ league-average ranking.

Betting odds favor the Phillies, with a moneyline of -160 and an implied team total of 4.70 runs, indicating confidence in their offense’s ability to produce runs against Abbott and a struggling Reds bullpen ranked 27th in MLB. With Luzardo’s potential to improve and the Phillies’ offensive capabilities, this game could tip in their favor.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Andrew Abbott’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (52.1% vs. 46.5% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kyle Schwarber has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 96.6-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 84 games (+14.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)