Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays
(-105/-115)-150
As the Cincinnati Reds face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 19, 2024, both teams are looking to break free from their below-average seasons. The Blue Jays sit at 58-66, while the Reds are slightly ahead at 60-64. This matchup marks the first in a series between the two clubs, with each team eager to gain an edge.
In their last outing, the Blue Jays secured a narrow 1-0 victory against the Chicago Cubs, showcasing a strong pitching performance. Kevin Gausman, projected to start for Toronto, is coming off a solid showing where he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball, which is a promising sign for the Blue Jays. Gausman, who ranks as the 99th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a Win/Loss record of 11-8 and an ERA of 4.20. However, his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.88 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this season. He projects to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs, which is a good mark.
On the other side, the Reds will send Julian Aguiar to the mound. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, Aguiar ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB and has struggled throughout the season. He projects to pitch only 4.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, with a concerning strikeout projection of just 3.1 batters.
Offensively, the Blue Jays have the 21st best lineup in MLB, while the Reds rank 16th. Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stands out as their best hitter, posting a .317 batting average and 25 home runs this season. The projections indicate that the Blue Jays are favored to score around 4.81 runs, while the Reds are expected to bring in approximately 4.08 runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Julian Aguiar – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Julian Aguiar in the 13th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Santiago Espinal has performed at a clip of 7.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 7th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)In his previous start, Kevin Gausman was on point and allowed 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games (+17.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 112 games (+9.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-690)Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 49 games (+48.10 Units / 98% ROI)