Review the Phillies vs Twins Insights and Game Breakdown – July 24, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies are set to battle it out on July 24, 2024, at Target Field in the third game of their series. The previous game saw the Phillies shut out the Twins 3-0, highlighting the current pitching disparity between the two teams. This game holds significance as both squads are having strong seasons; the Twins boast a 55-45 record, while the Phillies excel with a 64-37 mark.

On the mound, Steven Okert will start for the Twins, while Aaron Nola takes the ball for the Phillies. Okert, making his first start of the season after 34 bullpen appearances, has a 4.40 ERA but a more promising 3.48 xERA, indicating some bad luck. Nola, on the other hand, has been a reliable workhorse with an 11-4 record and a solid 3.54 ERA over 20 starts.

The Phillies’ powerful offense, ranked 5th in MLB, poses a significant threat to Okert, particularly given his high flyball rate (42%). This could spell trouble, as the Phillies have launched 123 home runs this season, 6th most in the league. Bryce Harper has been their top hitter with 23 home runs and a .296 batting average, complemented by a robust .970 OPS.

Despite being underdogs with a current moneyline of +130, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Twins a 47% win probability, suggesting some potential value for bettors. The Twins’ offense is no slouch either, ranking 4th overall and 7th in home runs. Their bullpen ranks 7th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, a solid but not elite group.

Aaron Nola projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.6 batters, a good performance on paper. In contrast, Okert is projected to last only 1.0 inning, which could put immediate pressure on the Twins’ bullpen.

Overall, while the Phillies are favored, the Twins’ strong offensive lineup and bullpen give them a fighting chance in what THE BAT X projects as a close game. Look for a competitive matchup as these teams conclude their series.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Aaron Nola has produced a big rise in his fastball velocity: from 91.7 mph over the whole season to 92.9 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Trea Turner has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .337 figure is inflated compared to his .270 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+115/-150)
  Edouard Julien is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  In today’s matchup, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.8% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 98 games (+19.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.60 Units / 52% ROI)