Review the Padres vs Rockies Match Preview and Winning Probability – August 16th, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies

On August 16, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres at Coors Field in a critical National League West matchup. The Rockies, with a disappointing record of 44-78, are struggling this season and are coming off a tough loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, where they fell 11-4. Meanwhile, the Padres are enjoying a solid 69-53 record and recently secured an impressive 8-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cal Quantrill is slated to take the mound for the Rockies, marking his 24th start of the year. Despite a Win/Loss record of 7-8, Quantrill’s performance has been shaky, as he ranks 211th among approximately 350 pitchers in the league, indicating he has been one of the weakest starters. His projections for this game suggest he will pitch around 4.7 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs, which points to a potentially rough outing.

The Padres counter with Matt Waldron, who, despite a slightly better ERA of 4.00, has also faced challenges, most notably allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. The Padres offense ranks 8th in MLB, bolstered by Jurickson Profar, who has been a standout with a .295 batting average and 19 home runs this season.

Interestingly, the projections suggest the Rockies could score 5.60 runs on average against the Padres, giving them an implied team total of 5.14 runs. This aligns with the Rockies’ offensive rankings, as they sit 17th overall but 10th in home runs — a sign that they can capitalize on Waldron’s weaknesses. With the Rockies’ projected win probability greater than the betting market suggests, there may be value in considering them as underdogs in this contest.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Waldron to throw 85 pitches in this game (15th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  David Peralta is certain to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game considering none of the available options for the Colorado Rockies share his handedness.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 12.6% more often this season (35%) than he did last year (22.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .321 mark is a fair amount higher than his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will tally 5.6 runs on average in this game: the 5th-most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 42 games at home (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 59 away games (+15.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Jake Cave has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games (+19.10 Units / 83% ROI)