Review the Padres vs Mariners Match Preview and Winning Probability – September 11th, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners face off against the San Diego Padres on September 11, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in the standings. The Mariners, currently sitting at 73-72, are in the midst of an average season, while the Padres, boasting an 82-64 record, are firmly in the playoff conversation and having a good year.

In their most recent matchup on September 10, the Mariners struggled, suffering a 7-3 defeat to the Padres. This loss was part of a challenging stretch for the Mariners, who are looking to bounce back as they enter the second game of the series. Bryan Woo is set to take the mound for Seattle, coming off a solid outing on September 5 where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Woo’s impressive 2.36 ERA this season marks him as a good pitcher, although his 3.84 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate thus far.

On the other side, the Padres will rely on Michael King, who is having a standout season with a 3.10 ERA and a solid 28.2% strikeout rate. King, ranked 19th among MLB starters, is coming off a fantastic performance where he struck out 8 batters and allowed just 1 run in 6 innings on September 6. This will be a critical matchup, as the Mariners’ offense ranks 24th overall and has struggled significantly, sitting at 30th in batting average.

As for betting perspectives, the projections indicate a closely contested game. Despite having a low implied team total of 3.50 runs, the projections favor the Padres slightly, suggesting they may edge out the Mariners in a matchup that could hinge on the performance of both starting pitchers. Given King’s ability to capitalize on strikeouts against a high-strikeout Mariners lineup, expectations are high for the Padres to secure another victory in this series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael King in the 94th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• The San Diego Padres (18.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  As it relates to his batting average skill, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 80 games (+12.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)