Review the Padres vs D-Backs Insights and Game Breakdown – September 29, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres gear up for the final game of their series on September 29, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League West showdown. The Padres, with a 93-68 record, have had a great season, while the Diamondbacks, at 88-73, have been above average. San Diego has already clinched the division, but Arizona is still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. Yesterday, the Padres shut out the Diamondbacks with a 5-0 victory, emphasizing their strong form and setting the stage for another critical matchup at Chase Field.

On the mound, Arizona will start Brandon Pfaadt, who ranks 70th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating an above-average performance. Despite a 4.80 ERA, Pfaadt’s xFIP of 3.64 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky this year and could bounce back. Meanwhile, the Padres will counter with Martin Perez, who has struggled this season, posting a 4.25 ERA that is masked by a lucky streak, as indicated by his 5.21 xERA. Perez’s projections for this game are not favorable, with high expected earned runs and hits allowed.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 2nd best lineup in the league, supported by their high team batting average and home run rankings. Corbin Carroll leads the charge with impressive numbers, while Randal Grichuk has been hot over the last week, boasting a .667 batting average. The Padres, however, are not far behind with the 6th best offense and the top team batting average in the league. Jurickson Profar has been a key contributor for San Diego, with strong performance metrics across the board.

In terms of betting, Arizona enters as the favorite with a moneyline of -205, reflecting an implied win probability of 65%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with this, projecting a 63% win probability for the Diamondbacks. The Padres, facing a steeper challenge, carry a +175 line and a lower implied probability. With both offenses capable of fireworks and the Diamondbacks’ slight edge on the mound, this game promises to be an intriguing contest to cap off the series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Luis Arraez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In today’s game, Jackson Merrill is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.6% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 17.1 outs per start this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt falls in the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In notching a 31.300 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Randal Grichuk has performed in the 94th percentile for power.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-205)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 129 games (+26.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+175)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 88 games (+17.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)