Review the Mets vs Dodgers Insights and Game Breakdown – June 4, 2025

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On June 4, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets in a pivotal matchup between two of the league’s top teams. Both clubs are enjoying solid seasons, with the Dodgers sitting at 37-24 and the Mets at 38-23. In their last contest on June 3, the Dodgers edged out the Mets in a thrilling 6-5 victory, marking the second game of their series.

Tony Gonsolin is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. The advanced stats indicate that Gonsolin, ranked 129th among starting pitchers, has struggled this season with a 5.23 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.47 suggests he could see improved results as the season progresses. The Dodgers’ offense, ranked 1st in MLB, is potent, especially with 100 home runs this season.

On the other side, Griffin Canning will start for the Mets. Canning’s performance has been more stable, boasting a 3.23 ERA and a 5-2 record, though projections indicate he may regress. His last outing saw him allow 3 earned runs in just 3 innings, which raises questions about his durability in this matchup.

The Mets have a strong offense, ranked 6th in MLB, but they’ll need to capitalize on Gonsolin’s control issues, as the Dodgers have the 2nd most walks this season. With a game total set at 10.0 runs and the Dodgers favored at -150, they face a solid opportunity to continue their winning ways against a Mets team that is also finding its stride.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Griffin Canning is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In comparison to his 89.7-mph average last year, Pete Alonso’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.9 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tony Gonsolin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  As a result of his reverse platoon split, Tony Gonsolin will be in a good position facing 7 bats in the projected batting order of the opposite hand today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In today’s game, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.8% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+16.45 Units / 36% ROI)