Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-205
On August 13, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Phillies are enjoying a solid season with a record of 69-49, while the Marlins are struggling at 44-75. This contest marks the first game of a series, and Philadelphia looks to bounce back after a disappointing 12-5 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 11. Meanwhile, the Marlins are coming off a narrow victory against the San Diego Padres, winning 7-6.
Taijuan Walker is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. Despite his current ranking as the 248th best starting pitcher in MLB, Walker’s peripheral statistics indicate he may be due for better luck, with a 4.94 xFIP suggesting he could perform more effectively than his 5.60 ERA would imply. However, he faces a challenging matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB.
On the flip side, Valente Bellozo, despite being considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, has shown flashes of effectiveness with a commendable 3.05 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.34 hints at potential regression, particularly against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 7th in MLB in offense and 3rd in batting average.
The projections favor the Phillies as significant favorites, suggesting they will score around 5.43 runs, while the Marlins are expected to manage an average of 4.16 runs. Given the Phillies’ offensive prowess and the Marlins’ struggles, this game sets up favorably for Philadelphia as they look to solidify their playoff positioning.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Kyle Stowers has strong power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker has a pitch-to-contact profile (9th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Taijuan Walker’s slider percentage has risen by 7.3% from last year to this one (2.8% to 10.1%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Bryce Harper will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-205)The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order projects as the 4th-strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 55% ROI)