Review the Latest Player Stats for Yankees vs Rays – (Wednesday, July 10th, 2024

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are set to clash again on July 10, 2024, at Tropicana Field. This American League East matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons. The Rays, currently 45-46, are having an average season, while the Yankees, at 55-38, are enjoying a great campaign. Despite their differing records, the Rays managed to secure a 5-3 victory in the series opener on July 9, a game that betting markets expected to be close.

The Rays will send Zach Eflin to the mound, a right-handed pitcher ranked 31st among approximately 350 starters according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Eflin has a 5-5 record with a 4.19 ERA this season, but his 3.35 xERA suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Interestingly, Eflin’s projections for today’s game include allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters over 5.5 innings, which could give the Rays a solid start.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with right-hander Marcus Stroman. Despite a respectable 7-4 record and a 3.58 ERA this year, Stroman’s 4.68 xFIP indicates he might regress. His projections include allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters over 5.6 innings. Stroman’s high ground-ball rate should play well against a Rays offense that ranks 26th in team home runs, minimizing the impact of their lack of power.

Offensively, the Yankees hold a significant edge. Their lineup ranks 4th in the majors, bolstered by Aaron Judge, who boasts a .308 batting average and 32 home runs. Conversely, the Rays’ offense ranks 23rd, though they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league.

The Rays’ bullpen, ranked 7th, could also play a pivotal role, especially with the Yankees’ bullpen ranked 20th. This disparity might be crucial in a game projected to be close, with both teams having an implied win probability around 50%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects this as a tightly contested game.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs and both teams’ implied team totals hovering around 4 runs, expect another competitive matchup as the Rays look to build momentum and the Yankees aim to bounce back.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball batters have a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Marcus Stroman and his 51.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in this matchup squaring off against 1 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  DJ LeMahieu has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .248 mark is considerably lower than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Projected catcher Jose Trevino profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Zach Eflin has utilized his curveball 7.5% less often this year (19%) than he did last year (26.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jose Siri has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (34% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Marcus Stroman is a pitch-to-contact type (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Siri.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 56% ROI)