Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
(-115/-105)-195
The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Chicago White Sox on June 20, 2025, at Rogers Centre. This matchup is particularly interesting, given that the Blue Jays are in the middle of a competitive season at 40-34, while the White Sox are struggling significantly with a record of 23-52. The Blue Jays, currently ranked 13th in terms of offense, are looking to capitalize on a White Sox team that ranks dead last in the league.
In their last outing on June 19, the Blue Jays lost 9-5, while the White Sox suffered an 8-6 defeat. Despite the Blue Jays’ recent setback, they still boast one of the better bullpens, ranked 4th, which should provide a solid advantage as they look to rebound against a Chicago lineup that has been anemic at the plate.
On the mound, Spencer Turnbull is set to start for Toronto. Although he has struggled to find a rhythm this season with just 2 appearances in relief, he holds a favorable 2.08 ERA this year, albeit with a concerning 5.20 xFIP that suggests he may not sustain this success. The projections indicate that he’ll pitch an average of 4.2 innings and allow around 2.0 earned runs.
Grant Taylor will take the hill for the White Sox. Despite having a higher ranking at 67th among MLB pitchers, his ERA of 6.00 this season raises concerns. The projections suggest he will also face challenges, with a projected average of 2.5 innings pitched while allowing about 1.0 earned runs.
With the Blue Jays favored at -190, they have an implied team total of 4.89 runs. Considering the White Sox’s lackluster offensive rankings, it sets up a favorable scenario for Toronto, who will be eager to bounce back and take advantage of a struggling opponent.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Luis Robert Jr. has a ton of pop (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Spencer Turnbull doesn’t generate many whiffs (10th percentile K%) — great news for Robert Jr..Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Chicago White Sox – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-195)The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+105)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)Tyler Heineman has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)