Review the Latest Player Stats for Twins vs Rays – Thursday, September 5, 2024

Minnesota Twins

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on September 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Rays, with a record of 69-70, are having an average season and sit in the middle of the pack. Meanwhile, the Twins boast a solid 75-64 record, positioning themselves above average in the American League. This matchup marks the fourth game of the series, and the Rays will be looking to bounce back after a lackluster performance in their last outing.

The Rays are expected to send Taj Bradley to the mound. Although Bradley has struggled with a 6-9 record and a 4.35 ERA this season, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 3.73. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings with an average of 2.1 earned runs, which is promising. However, he also has concerning projections of allowing 4.3 hits and 1.8 walks, which could put him in tough situations against a potent offense.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Pablo Lopez, who has been exceptional this season, holding a 13-8 record and a 4.05 ERA. Lopez ranks as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB, and the projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs. While his ERA is solid, he too faces challenges with a projected 4.7 hits and 1.6 walks.

Offensively, the Rays rank 25th in MLB, struggling with a .230 batting average and a mere 26 home runs. In contrast, the Twins’ offense ranks 9th, bolstered by a strong batting average of .270 and 224 home runs. This disparity in offensive capability could prove decisive in the game. Despite the Rays’ underdog status with a moneyline of +120 and an implied team total of just 3.26 runs, their strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, could help keep the game competitive.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Compared to league average, Pablo Lopez has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 3.9 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Edouard Julien is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Taj Bradley has relied on his change-up 14% more often this year (27.9%) than he did last season (13.9%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 116 games (+12.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)