Review the Latest Player Stats for Twins vs Braves – Saturday, April 19, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Atlanta Braves

On April 19, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Minnesota Twins at Truist Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves holding a record of 6-13 and the Twins at 7-13. In their last matchup, the Braves fell short, continuing their disappointing start to the year.

Chris Sale is slated to take the mound for the Braves. Despite a challenging season with a 0-2 record and an ERA of 6.63, Sale ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, suggesting that he may be due for a turnaround. He has shown excellent strikeout potential, averaging 7.7 strikeouts per game and projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs on average today. However, his tendency to give up hits (5.0 on average) and walks (1.4) could be problematic against a Twins lineup that is particularly disciplined, ranking 4th in the league for fewest walks.

Opposing Sale, Simeon Woods Richard has had a rough start to the season as well, with a 1-1 record and a 4.30 ERA. The projections indicate that he could struggle today, as he is expected to pitch fewer than five innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs on average. His 5.75 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate thus far.

Offensively, the Braves rank 21st overall, while the Twins are even worse at 27th. Atlanta’s power numbers remain somewhat respectable, ranking 11th in home runs. However, their overall offensive struggles could hinder them against a better bullpen like Minnesota’s, which ranks 5th in the league.

Given the Braves’ status as a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -205, this matchup presents a unique opportunity. While their poor performance thus far raises questions, Sale’s potential for a rebound coupled with the strength of the Braves’ bullpen could lead to a more favorable outcome than their current odds suggest.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Simeon Woods Richardson’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last year (93.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jonah Bride has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Minnesota Twins offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  Chris Sale is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Marcell Ozuna’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 95.6-mph now compared to just 92.1-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 10.3% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves ranks them as the #2 club in the game since the start of last season by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
• Chris Sale – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115/-115)
  Chris Sale has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 29% ROI)