Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+115
As the Chicago White Sox host the Detroit Tigers on August 26, 2024, the stakes remain low for both teams in a matchup that showcases two underperforming squads in the American League Central. The White Sox’s struggles continue, with a dismal record of 31-100, placing them at the bottom of the standings. In contrast, the Tigers sit at 65-66, fighting for respectability but firmly entrenched in the middle of the pack.
In their last contest, the White Sox were blanked by the Tigers, who managed to silence Chicago’s struggling offense. The White Sox have the 30th best batting offense in MLB this season, and their projected starter, Davis Martin, has struggled to find success, with an ERA of 3.22 in 2024, despite an unsightly Win/Loss record of 0-2. The projections suggest that Martin is likely to allow 2.8 earned runs and surrender 5.3 hits over his projected 4.9 innings today.
For the Tigers, Ty Madden will take the hill and, while he’s also not having the best season, he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in batting average and 28th in home runs. This presents Madden with a favorable opportunity to capitalize on Chicago’s offensive ineptitude.
Interestingly, the White Sox’s best hitter, Luis Robert, has shown signs of life recently, batting .429 over the last week with an OPS of .931. He may be the key to unlocking any offensive potential in this matchup. Overall, the projections indicate that the Tigers are favored to score 5.37 runs, while the White Sox are expected to tally around 4.76 runs, suggesting a competitive game despite the teams’ records. The value may lie in betting on the White Sox, whose win probability is slightly undervalued in the market.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)Parker Meadows is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jace Jung, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)Tallying 81.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Davis Martin places him the 21st percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)Nicky Lopez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 82.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago White Sox – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+115)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 22 away games (+15.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Andrew Benintendi has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 31% ROI)