Review the Latest Player Stats for Tigers vs Guardians – Monday, July 22, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are set to kick off a series on July 22, 2024, at Progressive Field. This American League Central matchup features two teams experiencing different seasons. The Guardians boast a strong 59-39 record, while the Tigers sit at 49-51, reflecting a more average performance.

On the mound, the Guardians will start Carlos Carrasco, a right-handed pitcher ranked #313 among starting pitchers in MLB. Carrasco has struggled this season with a 3-7 record and a 5.02 ERA, although his 4.22 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, and strike out 4.6 batters on average today. His last start on July 12 saw him perform well, going 5 innings with just 1 earned run.

The Tigers counter with Tarik Skubal, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked #1 among starting pitchers in MLB. Skubal has been stellar this season, sporting a 10-3 record and a 2.41 ERA. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allow 1.9 earned runs, and strike out 6.6 batters on average today. In his last start on July 12, Skubal pitched 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 8 strikeouts, showcasing his dominance.

Offensively, the Guardians have the edge, ranking 12th in MLB. They are 10th in team home runs and 9th in stolen bases. Jose Ramirez leads the charge with a .271 batting average, 23 home runs, and 79 RBIs. The Tigers’ offense ranks 25th and struggles in key categories, including 24th in batting average and 21st in home runs. Riley Greene has been their standout hitter with a .271 batting average and 17 home runs.

The Guardians’ bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, could play a crucial role in this game, especially given Carrasco’s inconsistency. The Tigers’ bullpen is also strong, ranked 8th, but they will need Skubal to continue his excellent form to keep the game close.

Betting markets have pegged the Guardians as slight underdogs with a moneyline of +115, giving them an implied win probability of 45%. In contrast, the Tigers have a moneyline of -135, translating to an implied win probability of 55%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Guardians with a 43% win probability, slightly lower than the market’s assessment. This makes a bet on the Guardians potentially appealing, given the small discrepancy and their solid overall performance this season.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Tarik Skubal’s fastball velocity has risen 1.2 mph this season (96.2 mph) over where it was last season (95 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Gio Urshela has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Carlos Carrasco has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Austin Hedges – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Austin Hedges’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.2-mph figure last season has fallen off to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+12.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)